67 Winter 2026 In recent months, in parallel to its increased uranium enrichment activities, the Iranian regime also accelerated clandestine efforts towards developing all other technological components necessary to assemble a nuclear weapon. This included converting enriched uranium to metal, a critical step because uranium metal forms the core of a nuclear weapon. Iran also worked on neutron initiators, which trigger the chain reaction of a nuclear weapon, as well as on multi-point detonation systems, which contribute to the effectiveness of the nuclear explosion. Iran had also conducted nuclear-related computer modeling, operated high-explosive testing facilities, advanced missile guidance and detonation systems, and developed underground infrastructure to conceal critical assets. Additional efforts included the implementation of passive defense doctrines such as camouflage, cyber defense, and hardened launch capabilities that reduce detectability and enhance survivability. Iran also expanded and upgraded its centrifuge arrays to shorten its breakout time, deploying advanced IR-6 centrifuges that significantly accelerate enrichment, as well as IR-7 and IR-8 models for research and development. The simultaneous and rapid progress of these efforts meant that once completed, it would have been possible to quickly and easily assemble a nuclear weapon, which would impede the ability to effectively stop the regime from operationalizing nuclear weapons. As a result, the Iranian regime had reached the point where it could produce a significant number of nuclear weapons within a very short timeframe and was on the verge of rendering the process of nuclear operationalization unstoppable.7 Intelligence obtained by Israel indicates that the Iranian regime had also dispersed the different components in the nuclear weapons program and decentralized the production process.8 Infrastructure, materials, processes, and personnel were spread across different military installations, fortified underground complexes, and within built-up civilian areas, all in a clandestine manner. Decentralization and clandestine activity undermine intelligence and operational capabilities in identifying completion of each component and the precise moment of breakout, and then the ability to precisely, effectively, and thoroughly disrupt the program once assembly of all the components begins. These developments, and Israel’s conclusion that immediate action was required, occurred within the context of the Iranian regime’s official policy to bring about the physical eradication of Israel, a policy which has been translated into concrete operative plans involving its proxies around Israel and the production of a vast arsenal of ballistic missiles in addition to the nuclear weapons program, and which has received expression in the persistent public statements of the regime’s leadership over the years.9 All these factors are expanded upon below. 7. The Prime Minister of Israel, June 13, 2025: “In recent years Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs… if not stopped Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time – it could be a year, it could be within a few months…” Statement by Prime Minister Netanyahu, YouTube (June 13, 2025), https://www. youtube.com/watch?v=Vsj5pw4QPls&t=53s; “In recent months, the Iranian regime had significantly accelerated its clandestine efforts to develop nuclear weapons… which brings the regime close to nuclear breakout.” Ambassador Daniel Meron, June 17, 2025: “In recent months, accumulated intelligence information has provided evidence that the Iranian regime is approaching the point of no return. The convergence of the Iranian regime’s efforts to produce thousands of kilograms of enriched uranium, alongside decentralized and fortified enrichment compounds in underground facilities, enables the Iranian regime to enrich uranium to military-grade levels, enabling the regime to obtain a nuclear weapon within a short period of time. Additionally, in recent years, and more so since the beginning of the war, concrete progress has been identified in the Iranian regime's efforts to produce weapons components adapted for a nuclear bomb.” Statement by Ambassador Daniel Meron at the Plenary Conference on Disarmament, Embassy of Israel (Geneva) (June 17, 2025), https://new.embassies.gov.il/ungeneva/en/news/statement-ambassador-daniel-meron-plenaryconference-disarmament17-june-2025; see also Information on the Iranian Nuclear Project, IDF (June 13, 2025), https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/idf-press-releases-israel-at-war/june-25-pr/information-on-the-iranian-nuclear-project/. 8. As the development itself of nuclear weapons falls outside the IAEA’s mandate (unlike its role in verifying that nuclear material is not diverted to weapons), such activities are therefore not subject to IAEA supervision. 9. Letter from the Acting Representative of the United States to the President of the Security Council, U.N. Doc. S/2025/426 (June 27, 2025): “The eradication of Israel and the downfall of America have been central pillars, policies, and promises of the Iranian regime since it took power in 1979. Directly, and through proxies, it has repeatedly — and at great cost to the people of Iran — taken extraordinary measures to carry out these lethal policies. Based on the regime's lengthy record of internal and external atrocities and depredations, there is no basis to believe that its claims of peaceful nuclear intentions are truthful, and it would be catastrophically dangerous to assume that a nuclear device in its hands would be left unused.”
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MjgzNzA=